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Table 12 Direct deaths (infections until September 1)

From: Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

  

SIR model

SIRDC model

Age

Pop

Cases

IFRa

Deaths

Cases

IFRa

Deaths

0–9

871,211

712,403

0.016%

114

159,980

0.016%

26

10–19

844,092

690,167

0.023%

159

154,907

0.023%

36

20–29

1,045,160

854,592

0.014%

120

191,341

0.014%

27

30–39

1,228,988

1,004,847

0.019%

191

225,456

0.019%

43

40–49

1,198,240

979,793

0.023%

225

219,719

0.023%

51

50–64

1,810,157

1,480,214

0.023%

340

331,345

0.023%

76

65–79

1,152,223

942,376

1.300%

12,251

181,062

1.300%

2354

80+

453,828

371,150

17.00%

63,095

51,367

17.00%

8732

Total

8,603,899

7,035,542

 

76,495

1,515,177

 

11,345

  1. Note: This table reports the number of direct deaths predicted according to both a basic SIR model and our SIRDC model accounting for seasonality and endogenous behavioral responses. For each model, the table displays the estimated number of infections in each age group and the corresponding number of direct fatalities, as well as the Bayesian infection fatality rate used for the computation