Table 2 Top: Pearson correlation coefficients between the residuals of first differences ln-debt and residuals of first differences ln-GDP for boom phases, recession phases and all data. Bottom: Pearson correlation coefficients between first differences ln-debt and residuals of first differences interest rates for boom phases, recession phases and all data. Italics: significant results with 5% level

c

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},\Delta {G}_{t+c}^{\mathrm{ln}}\right) \)

p value

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},\Delta {G}_{t+c}^{\mathrm{ln}}\right) \)

p value

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},\Delta {G}_{t+c}^{\mathrm{ln}}\right) \)

p value

 − 5

− 0.015

0.896

0.056

0.771

0.056

0.549

 − 4

0.066

0.556

− 0.020

0.916

0.015

0.871

 − 3

− 0.026

0.813

0.016

0.932

− 0.012

0.897

 − 2

0.062

0.576

0.047

0.795

0.125

0.176

 − 1

− 0.447

0.000

− 0.126

0.479

− 0.461

0.000

 0

0.354

0.001

− 0.276

0.109

0.039

0.671

 1

0.110

0.318

0.128

0.469

0.031

0.735

 2

0.111

0.317

− 0.128

0.477

0.021

0.823

 3

0.060

0.591

− 0.118

0.521

0.050

0.596

 4

− 0.175

0.117

0.425

0.017

− 0.077

0.409

 5

0.204

0.070

0.088

0.646

− 0.097

0.305

c

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},\Delta {O}_t\right) \)

p value

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},\Delta {O}_t\right) \)

p value

\( \mathrm{cor}\left({\Delta D}_t^{\mathrm{res}},{\Delta O}_t\right) \)

p value

 − 5

− 0.059

0.601

0.054

0.777

0.064

0.495

 − 4

− 0.029

0.799

0.111

0.552

0.027

0.776

 − 3

− 0.046

0.678

− 0.210

0.250

− 0.016

0.861

 − 2

0.201

0.068

0.090

0.617

0.252

0.006

 − 1

0.171

0.120

0.198

0.262

0.106

0.251

 0

− 0.180

0.100

0.004

0.981

− 0.121

0.189

 1

− 0.161

0.142

0.002

0.989

− 0.142

0.123

 2

0.097

0.381

− 0.183

0.308

− 0.011

0.904

 3

0.126

0.260

− 0.350

0.050

− 0.108

0.245

 4

0.113

0.315

− 0.014

0.940

0.100

0.287

 5

− 0.106

0.349

0.163

0.391

0.041

0.665