Overall sample | Subsamples | ||
---|---|---|---|
Model I | Model II | Model III | |
Surpluses only (B > 0) | Deficits only (B < 0) | ||
AD(− 1) | 0.259*** | 0.190*** | 0.169 |
(0.076) | (0.067) | (0.140) | |
Growth | 12.835 | 4.075 | 11.615 |
(8.715) | (6.890) | (12.364) | |
Unemployment | − 40.515 | − 36.414 | − 18.726 |
(27.800) | (25.272) | (31.027) | |
Elderly | − 41.152* | − 43.221*** | 6.601 |
(24.233) | (14.872) | (25.877) | |
Leaning | − 176.717*** | − 77.532* | − 147.956** |
(56.748) | (40.538) | (63.851) | |
Fragmentation | − 15.799 | − 29.366 | 17.861 |
(42.744) | (29.361) | (47.090) | |
Concordance | − 62.071 | − 144.951 | 211.956 |
(173.191) | (140.321) | (258.737) | |
Departments | − 3.934 | − 3.181 | 10.987 |
(11.357) | (9.977) | (13.955) | |
Election | 3.995 | 39.070 | − 42.618 |
(37.079) | (26.965) | (41.752) | |
Initiative | 103.349 | 175.484*** | − 25.178 |
(84.209) | (61.002) | (118.961) | |
Referendum | − 42.176 | − 56.754 | 68.208** |
(35.967) | (34.767) | (34.664) | |
Rules | − 5.540 | − 19.214 | − 24.714 |
(47.459) | (25.928) | (58.857) | |
Misestimation | − 0.439*** | − 0.426*** | 0.270 |
(0.129) | (0.069) | (0.173) | |
Balance(− 1) | 0.262*** | 0.220*** | − 0.003 |
(0.084) | (0.033) | (0.075) | |
Constant | 1511.481*** | 999.567** | − 388.93 |
(576.440) | (429.977) | (744.623) | |
Cantonal FE | YES | YES | YES |
Time FE | YES | YES | YES |
R-Squared | 0.488 | 0.596 | 0.513 |
Joint, p value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
N | 729 | 475 | 254 |