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Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 3 Results for the simultaneous-equations model

From: How does depreciations management affect subsequent fiscal performance? The case of the Swiss cantons

 

Overall sample (I)

Surpluses only (II)

Deficits only (III)

Revenues

Expenses

Revenues

Expenses

Revenues

Expenses

AD(− 1)

0.207***

− 0.262***

0.221***

− 0.271***

0.268**

− 0.265*

 

(0.056)

(0.058)

(0.051)

(0.045)

(0.107)

(0.153)

Growth

3.659

− 5.556

− 0.192

− 3.688

15.911*

− 14.975

 

(6.436)

(6.841)

(6.41)

(5.979)

(9.156)

(13.194)

Unemployment

− 56.984***

22.964

− 35.629

23.669

21.437

− 31.884

 

(20.237)

(22.095)

(25.671)

(23.867)

(28.695)

(41.494)

Elderly

− 22.386

31.019*

− 20.099

41.534***

− 26.254

− 10.134

 

(16.387)

(17.109)

(16.591)

(14.863)

(29.267)

(44.115)

Leaning

− 148.549***

120.13***

− 68.121

91.283**

− 115.571**

71.400

 

(36.736)

(40.465)

(44.633)

(41.462)

(48.061)

(73.771)

Fragmentation

− 46.035

38.552

− 59.238*

33.214

5.141

3.870

 

(28.547)

(30.422)

(29.314)

(27.369)

(41.780)

(59.581)

Concordance

− 24.939

− 38.935

− 161.682

108.808

− 143.424

5.217

 

(131.669)

(140.563)

(135.00)

(125.368)

(197.674)

(286.535)

Departments

12.598

14.331

9.366

6.341

12.147

− 3.524

 

(10.512)

(11.133)

(12.031)

(11.235)

(11.761)

(17.287)

Election

7.102

− 2.610

32.450

− 30.577

− 40.910

27.665

 

(26.226)

(28.006)

(27.535)

(25.594)

(31.615)

(45.538)

Initiative

110.642

− 101.956

209.760*

− 230.671**

− 514.333**

696.310**

 

(111.601)

(120.518)

(105.122)

(98.630)

(201.913)

(281.781)

Referendum

24.247

79.232

− 23.316

94.424**

282.286***

− 270.813**

 

(51.705)

(55.696)

(51.032)

(47.515)

(82.116)

(116.093)

Rules

− 32.723

23.074

− 38.696

45.861

50.581

− 158.574*

 

(40.642)

(43.582)

(48.987)

(45.083)

(56.873)

(82.777)

Misestimation

 

− 0.491***

 

− 0.262***

 

− 0.164*

  

(0.118)

 

(0.101)

 

(0.084)

Revenues

 

0.396***

 

0.681***

 

0.810***

  

(0.064)

 

(0.054)

 

(0.103)

Expenses

0.584***

 

0.829***

 

0.878***

 
 

(0.049)

 

(0.040)

 

(0.036)

 

Revenues(− 1)

0.315***

 

0.145***

 

0.063**

 
 

(0.032)

 

(0.027)

 

(0.030)

 

Expenses (− 1)

 

0.396***

 

0.202***

 

0.156***

  

(0.473)

 

(0.038)

 

(0.055)

Revenues (− 3)

 

0.045***

 

0.002

 

0.035

  

(0.017)

 

(0.013)

 

(0.035)

Expenses(− 3)

0.074***

 

0.058***

 

0.054**

 
 

(0.016)

 

(0.014)

 

(0.021)

 

Constant

691.67

− 71.398

− 39.678

− 153.464

1270.877

− 1381.556

 

(561.543)

(594.001)

(572.274)

(527.073)

(904.745)

(1306.944)

Cantonal FE

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

Time FE

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

R-Squared

0.988

0.987

0.994

0.995

0.990

0.990

Joint p value

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

N

695

695

451

451

244

244

  1. (1) Dependent variables: true operating revenues and true operating expenses in real terms per capita at time t; (2) cantonal fixed and time fixed effects are considered; (3) three-stage least square (3SLS) estimator; (4) Parameter values appear without brackets and the standard deviation within. Asterisks denote the level of significance of parameter values: *** indicating significance at 1% level, ** at 5% level and * at 10% level
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