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Table 3 Results for the simultaneous-equations model

From: How does depreciations management affect subsequent fiscal performance? The case of the Swiss cantons

  Overall sample (I) Surpluses only (II) Deficits only (III)
Revenues Expenses Revenues Expenses Revenues Expenses
AD(− 1) 0.207*** − 0.262*** 0.221*** − 0.271*** 0.268** − 0.265*
  (0.056) (0.058) (0.051) (0.045) (0.107) (0.153)
Growth 3.659 − 5.556 − 0.192 − 3.688 15.911* − 14.975
  (6.436) (6.841) (6.41) (5.979) (9.156) (13.194)
Unemployment − 56.984*** 22.964 − 35.629 23.669 21.437 − 31.884
  (20.237) (22.095) (25.671) (23.867) (28.695) (41.494)
Elderly − 22.386 31.019* − 20.099 41.534*** − 26.254 − 10.134
  (16.387) (17.109) (16.591) (14.863) (29.267) (44.115)
Leaning − 148.549*** 120.13*** − 68.121 91.283** − 115.571** 71.400
  (36.736) (40.465) (44.633) (41.462) (48.061) (73.771)
Fragmentation − 46.035 38.552 − 59.238* 33.214 5.141 3.870
  (28.547) (30.422) (29.314) (27.369) (41.780) (59.581)
Concordance − 24.939 − 38.935 − 161.682 108.808 − 143.424 5.217
  (131.669) (140.563) (135.00) (125.368) (197.674) (286.535)
Departments 12.598 14.331 9.366 6.341 12.147 − 3.524
  (10.512) (11.133) (12.031) (11.235) (11.761) (17.287)
Election 7.102 − 2.610 32.450 − 30.577 − 40.910 27.665
  (26.226) (28.006) (27.535) (25.594) (31.615) (45.538)
Initiative 110.642 − 101.956 209.760* − 230.671** − 514.333** 696.310**
  (111.601) (120.518) (105.122) (98.630) (201.913) (281.781)
Referendum 24.247 79.232 − 23.316 94.424** 282.286*** − 270.813**
  (51.705) (55.696) (51.032) (47.515) (82.116) (116.093)
Rules − 32.723 23.074 − 38.696 45.861 50.581 − 158.574*
  (40.642) (43.582) (48.987) (45.083) (56.873) (82.777)
Misestimation   − 0.491***   − 0.262***   − 0.164*
   (0.118)   (0.101)   (0.084)
Revenues   0.396***   0.681***   0.810***
   (0.064)   (0.054)   (0.103)
Expenses 0.584***   0.829***   0.878***  
  (0.049)   (0.040)   (0.036)  
Revenues(− 1) 0.315***   0.145***   0.063**  
  (0.032)   (0.027)   (0.030)  
Expenses (− 1)   0.396***   0.202***   0.156***
   (0.473)   (0.038)   (0.055)
Revenues (− 3)   0.045***   0.002   0.035
   (0.017)   (0.013)   (0.035)
Expenses(− 3) 0.074***   0.058***   0.054**  
  (0.016)   (0.014)   (0.021)  
Constant 691.67 − 71.398 − 39.678 − 153.464 1270.877 − 1381.556
  (561.543) (594.001) (572.274) (527.073) (904.745) (1306.944)
Cantonal FE YES YES YES YES YES YES
Time FE YES YES YES YES YES YES
R-Squared 0.988 0.987 0.994 0.995 0.990 0.990
Joint p value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
N 695 695 451 451 244 244
  1. (1) Dependent variables: true operating revenues and true operating expenses in real terms per capita at time t; (2) cantonal fixed and time fixed effects are considered; (3) three-stage least square (3SLS) estimator; (4) Parameter values appear without brackets and the standard deviation within. Asterisks denote the level of significance of parameter values: *** indicating significance at 1% level, ** at 5% level and * at 10% level