From: Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland
ΔRt = gov. bond yields | 2 years | 5 years | 7 years | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference period | ||||||
| 0.318 | 0.306*** | 0.299*** | 0.166* | 0.212* | 0.097 |
(0.182) | (0.092) | (0.078) | (0.08) | (0.088) | (0.06) | |
| 0.363*** | 0.239** | 0.239*** | 0.190** | 0.218** | 0.153** |
(0.093) | (0.078) | (0.062) | (0.07) | (0.071) | (0.056) | |
Constant | 0.000 | − 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 |
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
No. of obs. | 1238 | 1241 | 1241 | 1241 | 1235 | 1111 |
R2 | 0.074 | 0.102 | 0.111 | 0.048 | 0.075 | 0.039 |
H0: p-value | 0.840 | 0.617 | 0.590 | 0.841 | 0.963 | 0.531 |
ZLB period | ||||||
| 0.704*** | 0.779*** | 0.788*** | 0.788*** | 0.686** | 0.466* |
(0.149) | (0.197) | (0.183) | (0.194) | (0.217) | (0.234) | |
| 0.318 | 0.464** | 0.295 | 0.326 | 0.192 | 0.321 |
(0.196) | (0.179) | (0.198) | (0.23) | (0.2) | (0.219) | |
Constant | − 0.002 | − 0.003* | − 0.003* | − 0.003 | − 0.004* | − 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 791 | 791 | 791 | 790 | 782 | 749 |
R2 | 0.080 | 0.047 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.035 | 0.021 |
H0: p-value | 0.163 | 0.281 | 0.101 | 0.172 | 0.133 | 0.691 |
Floor period | ||||||
| − 0.253* | 0.000 | − 0.122 | − 0.036 | − 0.074 | − 0.013 |
(0.115) | (0.112) | (0.117) | (0.118) | (0.106) | (0.106) | |
| 0.295*** | 0.234** | 0.316* | 0.463** | 0.468** | 0.434*** |
(0.071) | (0.072) | (0.14) | (0.168) | (0.154) | (0.126) | |
Constant | 0.003* | 0.001 | 0.003* | 0.003* | 0.003* | 0.003* |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
No. of obs. | 645 | 647 | 570 | 639 | 638 | 644 |
R2 | 0.037 | 0.030 | 0.030 | 0.056 | 0.050 | 0.050 |
H0: p-value | 0.000 | 0.095 | 0.030 | 0.031 | 0.010 | 0.015 |
NIR period | ||||||
| 0.837** | 0.744** | 0.594* | 0.420* | 0.464* | 0.564* |
(0.321) | (0.251) | (0.232) | (0.202) | (0.210) | (0.252) | |
| 0.397** | 0.671** | 0.526** | 0.390* | 0.417* | 0.398 |
(0.129) | (0.241) | (0.190) | (0.161) | (0.185) | (0.212) | |
Constant | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 | 444 |
R2 | 0.198 | 0.238 | 0.139 | 0.077 | 0.068 | 0.076 |
H0: p-value | 0.235 | 0.848 | 0.835 | 0.915 | 0.876 | 0.642 |