Skip to main content

Table 2 Model specification

From: Nominal stability over two centuries

E[ψ|y] 0.44 0.25 0.31 0.27
\(\sqrt {var[\psi |\mathbf {y}]}\) 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.08
P[ψ>0|y] 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Bayes factor 2.08×10106 11.98 93.34 17.57
  1. The table gives the posterior mean, standard deviation, and the posterior probability that the MA coefficient is larger than zero. The last line gives the Bayes factor in favor of the model with the MA component against the variant without the MA component (see Chan (2013) for computational details). To calculate the Bayes factor, the posterior density was evaluated using a kernel density estimator