(a) Nominal stability: \(P[\underline \tau < \tau _{t} < \overline \tau |\mathbf {y}]\)
|
1804–1849: Competing currencies
|
0.46
|
0.65
| | |
1850–1873: Bimetallism
|
0.48
|
0.60
|
0.43
|
0.31
|
1874–1906: Gold Standard
|
0.53
|
0.62
|
0.49
|
0.49
|
1907–1944: World War period
|
0.59
|
0.64
|
0.49
|
0.43
|
1945–1973: Bretton Woods
|
0.40
|
0.65
|
0.15
|
0.04
|
1974–1999: Monetary targeting
|
0.20
|
0.72
|
0.21
|
0.27
|
2000–2017: Inflation targeting
|
0.75
|
0.73
|
0.70
|
0.53
|
(b) Overshooting: \(P[\tau _{t} > \overline \tau |\mathbf {y} ]\)
|
1804–1849: Competing currencies
|
0.14
|
0.07
| | |
1850–1873: Bimetallism
|
0.18
|
0.09
|
0.06
|
0.04
|
1874–1906: Gold Standard
|
0.03
|
0.05
|
0.08
|
0.11
|
1907–1944: World War period
|
0.23
|
0.22
|
0.31
|
0.45
|
1945–1973: Bretton Woods
|
0.58
|
0.31
|
0.85
|
0.96
|
1974–1999: Monetary targeting
|
0.79
|
0.24
|
0.77
|
0.68
|
2000–2017: Inflation targeting
|
0.01
|
0.02
|
0.04
|
0.03
|
(c) Undershooting: \(P[ \tau _{t} <\underline \tau |\mathbf {y}]\)
|
1804-1849: Competing currencies
|
0.41
|
0.28
| | |
1850–1873: Bimetallism
|
0.34
|
0.31
|
0.51
|
0.65
|
1874–1906: Gold Standard
|
0.44
|
0.33
|
0.44
|
0.41
|
1907–1944: World War period
|
0.18
|
0.15
|
0.20
|
0.12
|
1945–1973: Bretton Woods
|
0.02
|
0.04
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
1974–1999: Monetary targeting
|
0.00
|
0.04
|
0.03
|
0.06
|
2000–2017: Inflation targeting
|
0.24
|
0.25
|
0.26
|
0.43
|