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Table 5 Posterior moments ψ for CPI inflation

From: Nominal stability over two centuries

  1800–2017 1800–1907 1907–2017
E[ψ|y] 0.44 0.28 0.63
\(\sqrt {var[\psi |\mathbf {y}]}\) 0.06 0.10 0.10
P[ψ>0|y] 1.00 0.99 1.00
  1. Posterior moments of the MA parameter ψ. The table gives the posterior mean, standard deviation, and the posterior probability that the coefficient is larger than zero