Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 1 Welfare results of different studies on Swiss climate policy

Publication	Reference scenario	Year	GHG emissions target	Welfare change (percentage from reference)
Marcucci and Turton (2012) ^a	No-policy	2030	400 ppm	− 2
		2040	400 ppm	− 1.5
		2080	400 ppm	− 0.8
Sceia et al. (2012) ^b	Continuation of	2020	− 21% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.33
	existing
	climate policies
		2030	− 31% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.34
		2020	− 30% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.49
		2030	− 45% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.47
Bretschger and Lin (2017) ^c	No-policy	2050	− 65% w.r.t. 2010	− 1.58
Bretschger et al. (2011) ^d	No-policy	2020	− 30% w.r.t. 1990	− 1
		2050	− 80% w.r.t. 1990	− 4.5
Karydas and Zhang (2017) ^c	No-policy	2050	− 20% w.r.t. 2010	− 1.33
			− 40% w.r.t. 2010	− 2.25
			− 60% w.r.t. 2010	− 4.00
Landis et al. (2018) ^e	Continuation of	2030	− 30% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.15
	already decided
	climate policies
		2030	− 40% w.r.t. 1990	− 0.5
		2030	− 50% w.r.t. 1990	− 1.25
Böhringer and Müller (2014) ^f	Continuation of	2050	− 63% w.r.t. BAU	− 1.0
	already decided			to
	climate policies			− 0.4

^aPolicy target is to phase out global GHG emissions such that atmospheric concentrations do not exceed 400 parts per million (ppm). The model assumes a global social planner to distribute abatement efforts efficiently across technologies, time, and space. The “welfare” measure used is GDP
^bWe report results for the scenario where emission reductions outside Switzerland that are payed for by Swiss sectors count toward the target. Climate policies in reference scenario are as of 2007. The welfare measure is household consumption
^cThe study considers changes in intertemporal utility of consumption after 2010
^dThe study reports both consumption reductions in 2050 and changes in intertemporal welfare. Here, we list changes in annual consumption. Intertemporal welfare is reduced by 2.6%
^eThe welfare measure is real household consumption
^fIn the reference scenario, per capita CO ₂ emissions reach 3.8 tonnes and the GHG emission target corresponds to 1.5 tonnes per capita. Real household consumption is the welfare measure