Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 2 Harmonizing assumptions

	2010	2020	2035	2050	Reference
Population (million)	7.8	8.7	9.8	10.3	BFS Scenario A-00-2015 (BFS 2015)
Working population (million full time eq.)	3.85	4.31	4.58	4.63	BFS Scenario A-00-2015 (BFS 2015)
Oil price (2010$/barrel)	78	105	120	129	4DS scenario, IEA (2015)
Gas price (2010$/MBtu)	7.5	10.4	11.7	12.4	4DS scenario, IEA (2015)
Cooling degree days ^a	120		235	280	“Klima Waermer” scenario, Prognos (2012) pp. 80-81
Heating degree days ^a	3586		3002	2831	“Klima Waermer” scenario, Prognos (2012) pp. 80-81
Cap on emissions from ETS sectors (relative to 2013) ^b		0.88	0.68	0.52	EU ETS yearly reduction

^aUnderlying assumption for 2035: a temperature increase in the winter months September–May of 1^∘C and in the summer months June–August of 2 ^∘C; for 2050: a temperature increase in the winter months October–April of 1.5 ^∘C, in the summer months June–August of 2.5 ^∘C, and in May and September of 2 ^∘C
^bThe cap is used in all scenarios except those with an economy-wide tax (1.5_uni and 1.0_uni). The cap is computed using a yearly reduction factor of 1.74% used in the EU ETS until 2020