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Table 5 BAU scenario: harmonizing assumptions

From: Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios

  2010 2020 2035 2050 Reference
Potential GDP (rel. to 2010) 1 1.18 1.43 1.66 SECO 2015 a
Total energy use (rel. to 2010) b 1 0.94 0.84 0.78 BAU scenario, Prognos (2012)
Electricity use (rel. to 2010) b 1 1.05 1.10 1.18 BAU scenario, Prognos (2012)
CO 2 tax heating fuels (CHF/tCO 2) 36 120 120 120 CO 2 Levy (Swiss Federal Council, 2013b)
CO 2 tax transport fuels (CHF/tCO 2) c 0 0 0 0 CO 2 Levy (Swiss Federal Council, 2013b)
Cap on emissions from ETS sectors (relative to 2013) d   0.88 0.68 0.52 EU ETS yearly reduction
  1. aData provided by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economics Affairs (SECO)
  2. bAssumption used in CEPE-HH, CEPE-316, and CITE. GEMINI-E3 uses its energy efficiency assumptions. STEM has exogenously driven assumptions on energy service uses (e.g., heating/lighting/air conditioning) based on Prognos (2012) and finds the least costly supply option
  3. cThe STEM model includes in the BAU scenario the existing mineral oil tax and climate levy for heating fuels
  4. dThe cap is computed using a yearly reduction factor of 1.74% used in the EU ETS until 2020