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Table 4 Short-run effects on Mout,b, yearly frequency

From: Confederation debt management since 1970

  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Constant 0.49 (23.16) − 4.08 (22.68) 34.4 (30.08) 20.49 (27.04) 9.51 (21.39) 21.26 (33.18) 31.69 (24.38) 14.7 (20.47)
Δ(TD-MD)/GDP 14.52 (21.88)   − 0.47 (24.09)   17.37 (21.26)   − 9.48 (23.62)  
ΔMD/GDP 99.99*** (33.12) 103.1*** (20.47)    38.9* (23.01) 64.81** (25.29)   
ΔMout,b(t-1) 0.03 (0.29)    0.46** (0.2) 0.46** (0.15)    0.52*** (0.14)
Adjusted R2 0.43 0.47 − 0.04 0.18 0.28 0.13 − 0.02 0.25
Box-Ljung (3) 0.33 0.31 0.04 0.16 0.76 0 0 0.4
Observations 27 28 28 27 45 46 46 45
  1. This table reports regressions with ΔMout,b as dependent variable. The dataset contains yearly observations. Column 1 displays the baseline regression, whereas columns 2 to 8 display specific robustness checks. Column 1–4 is based on yearly observations from 1980 to 2008 and column 5 to 8 from 1970 to 2016. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance (two-tailed) at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance level respectively. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. For columns 1, 4, and 8, heteroscedasticity-consistent (Huber-White) standard errors are used. Column 7 displays Newey-West standard errors due to serial correlation. Due to the small number of observations, for columns 2, 3, 5, and 6 we use normal standard errors that are larger than the Huber-White or Newey-West standard errors. To test for serial correlation of the error term, we performed the Box-Ljung test with a lag of 3 (considering the small sample size)