| | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) |
|---|
Constant | 0.49 (23.16) | − 4.08 (22.68) | 34.4 (30.08) | 20.49 (27.04) | 9.51 (21.39) | 21.26 (33.18) | 31.69 (24.38) | 14.7 (20.47) |
Δ(TD-MD)/GDP | 14.52 (21.88) | | − 0.47 (24.09) | | 17.37 (21.26) | | − 9.48 (23.62) | |
ΔMD/GDP | 99.99*** (33.12) | 103.1*** (20.47) | | | 38.9* (23.01) | 64.81** (25.29) | | |
ΔMout,b(t-1) | 0.03 (0.29) | | | 0.46** (0.2) | 0.46** (0.15) | | | 0.52*** (0.14) |
Adjusted R2 | 0.43 | 0.47 | − 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.13 | − 0.02 | 0.25 |
Box-Ljung (3) | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.04 | 0.16 | 0.76 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
Observations | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 45 |
- This table reports regressions with ΔMout,b as dependent variable. The dataset contains yearly observations. Column 1 displays the baseline regression, whereas columns 2 to 8 display specific robustness checks. Column 1–4 is based on yearly observations from 1980 to 2008 and column 5 to 8 from 1970 to 2016. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance (two-tailed) at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance level respectively. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. For columns 1, 4, and 8, heteroscedasticity-consistent (Huber-White) standard errors are used. Column 7 displays Newey-West standard errors due to serial correlation. Due to the small number of observations, for columns 2, 3, 5, and 6 we use normal standard errors that are larger than the Huber-White or Newey-West standard errors. To test for serial correlation of the error term, we performed the Box-Ljung test with a lag of 3 (considering the small sample size)
