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Table 5 Short-run effects on SSTD, yearly frequency

From: Confederation debt management since 1970

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

Constant

− 0.21 (0.58)

− 0.21 (0.68)

0.22 (0.61)

− 0.04 (0.51)

− 0.11 (0.37)

− 0.09 (0.5)

0.04 (0.46)

0.01 (0.44)

Δ(TD-MD)/GDP

0.44 (0.47)

 

0.56 (0.49)

 

0.4 (0.44)

 

0.34 (0.45)

 

ΔMD/GDP

0.68 (0.54)

1.04 (0.9)

  

0.76 (0.55)

0.91 (0.76)

  

ΔSSTD (t-1)

0.45** (0.17)

  

0.53** (0.19)

0.2 (0.18)

  

0.29 (0.21)

Adjusted R2

0.27

0.88

0.01

0.26

0.08

0.06

− 0.01

0.06

Box-Ljung (3)

0.33

0

0.06

0.39

0.84

0.09

0.3

0.94

Observations

27

28

28

27

45

46

46

45

  1. This table reports regressions with ΔSSTD as dependent variable. The dataset contains yearly observations. Column 1 displays the baseline regression, whereas columns 2–8 display specific robustness checks. Column 1 to 4 is based on yearly observations from 1980 to 2008 and column 5 to 8 from 1970 to 2016. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance (two-tailed) at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance level respectively. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. For columns 4, 5, and 8, heteroscedasticity-consistent (Huber-White) standard errors are used. Columns 2 and 6 displays Newey-West standard errors due to serial correlation. Due to the small number of observations, for columns 1, 3, and 7 we use normal standard errors that are larger than the Huber-White or Newey-West standard errors. To test for serial correlation of the error term, we perform the Box-Ljung test and report its p-value. We use a lag of 3 (considering the small sample size)