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Table 5 Short-run effects on SSTD, yearly frequency

From: Confederation debt management since 1970

  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Constant − 0.21 (0.58) − 0.21 (0.68) 0.22 (0.61) − 0.04 (0.51) − 0.11 (0.37) − 0.09 (0.5) 0.04 (0.46) 0.01 (0.44)
Δ(TD-MD)/GDP 0.44 (0.47)   0.56 (0.49)   0.4 (0.44)   0.34 (0.45)  
ΔMD/GDP 0.68 (0.54) 1.04 (0.9)    0.76 (0.55) 0.91 (0.76)   
ΔSSTD (t-1) 0.45** (0.17)    0.53** (0.19) 0.2 (0.18)    0.29 (0.21)
Adjusted R2 0.27 0.88 0.01 0.26 0.08 0.06 − 0.01 0.06
Box-Ljung (3) 0.33 0 0.06 0.39 0.84 0.09 0.3 0.94
Observations 27 28 28 27 45 46 46 45
  1. This table reports regressions with ΔSSTD as dependent variable. The dataset contains yearly observations. Column 1 displays the baseline regression, whereas columns 2–8 display specific robustness checks. Column 1 to 4 is based on yearly observations from 1980 to 2008 and column 5 to 8 from 1970 to 2016. ***, **, and * denote statistical significance (two-tailed) at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance level respectively. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. For columns 4, 5, and 8, heteroscedasticity-consistent (Huber-White) standard errors are used. Columns 2 and 6 displays Newey-West standard errors due to serial correlation. Due to the small number of observations, for columns 1, 3, and 7 we use normal standard errors that are larger than the Huber-White or Newey-West standard errors. To test for serial correlation of the error term, we perform the Box-Ljung test and report its p-value. We use a lag of 3 (considering the small sample size)