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Table 1 Pseudo-real-time evaluation. Root-mean-squared errors (RMSE) for forecasts on days with a new quarterly GDP release. A lower RMSE implies higher predictive accuracy. h=0 (h=1) denotes the forecast for the current (next) quarter. We use three benchmarks. First, we use the first quarterly release of the corresponding quarter (panel a). Second, we use an AR(1) model (panel b). Third, we use the KOF Economic Barometer (panel c). The Diebold-Mariano-West (DMW) test provides a p value for the null hypothesis of equal predictive accuracy against the alternative written in the column header (Diebold and Mariano 2002; West 1996). We assume a quadratic loss function

From: A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy

(a) Real GDP growth: First release vs. f-curve
  RMSE RMSE Relative RMSE DMW test (p value)
  First release f-curve First release/f-curve First release <f-curve
h=0 0.45 0.57 0.79 0.177
h=1 0.45 0.7 0.64 0.042
(b) Real GDP growth: f-curve vs. AR(1)
  RMSE RMSE Relative RMSE DMW test (p value)
  f-curve AR(1) f-curve/AR(1) f-curve < AR(1)
h=0 0.57 0.7 0.82 0.039
h=1 0.7 0.7 0.99 0.458
(c) Real GDP growth: f-curve vs. KOF Economic Barometer
  RMSE RMSE Relative RMSE DMW test (p value)
  f-curve Barometer f-curve/Barometer f-curve < Barometer
h=0 0.57 0.6 0.95 0.162
h=1 0.7 0.65 1.07 0.832