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Table 12 Direct deaths (infections until September 1)

From: Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

   SIR model SIRDC model
Age Pop Cases IFRa Deaths Cases IFRa Deaths
0–9 871,211 712,403 0.016% 114 159,980 0.016% 26
10–19 844,092 690,167 0.023% 159 154,907 0.023% 36
20–29 1,045,160 854,592 0.014% 120 191,341 0.014% 27
30–39 1,228,988 1,004,847 0.019% 191 225,456 0.019% 43
40–49 1,198,240 979,793 0.023% 225 219,719 0.023% 51
50–64 1,810,157 1,480,214 0.023% 340 331,345 0.023% 76
65–79 1,152,223 942,376 1.300% 12,251 181,062 1.300% 2354
80+ 453,828 371,150 17.00% 63,095 51,367 17.00% 8732
Total 8,603,899 7,035,542   76,495 1,515,177   11,345
  1. Note: This table reports the number of direct deaths predicted according to both a basic SIR model and our SIRDC model accounting for seasonality and endogenous behavioral responses. For each model, the table displays the estimated number of infections in each age group and the corresponding number of direct fatalities, as well as the Bayesian infection fatality rate used for the computation