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Table 6 Direct deaths (infections until September 1)

From: Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

  

SIR model

SIRDC model

Age

Pop

Cases

IFRa

Deaths

Cases

IFRa

Deaths

0–9

871,211

712,403

0.0000%

0

172,233

0.0000%

0

10–19

844,092

690,167

0.0000%

0

166,857

0.0000%

0

20–29

1,045,160

854,592

0.0000%

0

206,098

0.0000%

0

30–39

1,228,988

1,004,847

0.0158%

159

242,444

0.0158%

38

40–49

1,198,240

979,793

0.0108%

106

236,544

0.0108%

26

50–64

1,810,157

1,480,214

0.1682%

2490

345,460

0.1682%

581

65–79

1,152,223

942,376

3.0574%

28,812

162,498

3.0574%

4968

80+

453,828

371,150

9.1148%

33,830

64,411

9.1148%

5871

Total

8,603,899

7,035,542

 

65,397

1,596,545

 

11,484

  1. Note: This table reports the number of direct deaths predicted according to both a basic SIR model and our SIRDC model accounting for seasonality and endogenous behavioral responses. For each model, the table displays the estimated number of infections in each age group and the corresponding number of direct fatalities, as well as the imputed infection fatality rate used for the computation