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Table 7 Overflow deaths (infections until September 1)

From: Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

 

SIR model

SIRDC model

Age

Hospital

ICU

Total

Hospital

ICU

Total

0–9

772

256

1,028

0

19

19

10–19

140

57

197

0

4

4

20–29

799

194

993

0

14

14

30–39

967

669

1636

0

49

49

40–49

1549

889

2438

0

66

66

50–64

2856

4743

7599

0

336

336

65–79

16,083

17,888

33,971

0

858

858

80+

10,729

3680

14,409

0

178

178

Total

33,895

28,376

62,271

0

1524

1524

  1. Note: This table reports the number of deaths due to the shortage of healthcare facilities predicted according to both a basic SIR model and our SIRDC model accounting for seasonality and endogenous behavioral responses. For each model, the table displays separately the number of overflow deaths which can be attributed to the lack of hospital (but not ICU) beds and to the lack of ICU beds