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Table 8 Estimated number of saved lives (by September 1)

From: Saving lives during the COVID-19 pandemic: the benefits of the first Swiss lockdown

   SIR model SIRDC model
  Actual Direct Overflow Excess Direct Overflow Excess
0–9 1 0 1028 1027 0 19 18
10–19 0 0 197 197 0 4 4
20–29 0 0 993 993 0 14 14
30–39 5 159 1636 1790 38 49 82
40–49 6 106 2438 2538 26 66 86
50–64 90 2490 7599 9999 581 336 827
65–79 455 28,812 33,971 62,328 4968 858 5371
80+ 1215 33,830 14,409 47,024 5871 178 4834
Total 1772 65,397 62,271 125,896 11,484 1524 11,236
  1. Note: This table reports the number of saved lives in each age group according to both a basic SIR model and our SIRDC model accounting for seasonality and endogenous behavioral responses. The estimated number of saved lives is computed as the difference between the total number of predicted fatalities (direct and overflow) and the actual number of occurred deaths