Fig. 6
Effect of foreign new COVID-19 cases on economic activity. Coefficient \(\gamma\) is reported for each lag ℓ (1–40), and based on \(\Delta {Y}_{i,t}=\alpha + {\mu }_{i}+{\gamma }_{t}+{\beta SV}_{i,t-l}+\gamma {Trading Partner}_{j,t-m}+ {\theta X}_{i,t-l}+ {\varepsilon }_{i,t}\) for a sample of 43 countries using daily data from December 20, 2020–June 16, 2021. where \({Y}_{i,t}\) denotes: the number of new COVID-19 cases. \({Trading Partner}_{i,t}\) is a spillover term for COVID-19 cases in main trading partner countries. \({SV}_{i,t-l}\) denotes the share of the individuals in the population which have received at least one vaccine shot.\({\mu }_{i}\) and \({\gamma }_{t}\) are the country and time fixed effects. X is a vector of control variables which includes the level of new cases, NO2 and Co emissions per capita, the stringency of containment measures index, and mobility indices at t-1. ℓ denotes the lags in the response of new COVID-19 cases. Lightly shaded bars denote 90 percent confidence bands, and dark-shared bars denote 95 percent confidence bands