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Table 11 Nonlinear effects of vaccines on economic activity using CO

From: The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Variables

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

CO

CO

CO

CO

CO

CO

First dose per capita

− 0.001680**

− 0.001771**

0.000410

   
 

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

   

First dose squared

0.000032**

0.000035*

    
 

(0.000)

(0.000)

    

Second dose per capita

 

− 0.000303

− 0.001211

0.001004

  
  

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.002)

  

Second dose squared

  

0.000039*

   
   

(0.000)

   

Surprises in vaccines administered (per capita)

   

− 0.001468

− 0.007415

 
    

(0.001)

(0.007)

 

Second dose per capita * Surprises in vaccines administered

   

0.000032

  
    

(0.000)

  

Interaction with second dose quartiles (1st quartile omitted)

2nd Quartile of second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines

    

0.008883

 
     

(0.006)

 

3rd Quartile of second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines

    

0.009174

 
     

(0.007)

 

4th Quartile of second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines

    

0.008483

 
     

(0.007)

 

Low second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines

     

− 0.002158

      

(0.004)

High second doses administered * Surprises in vaccines

     

0.001272

      

(0.001)

Observations

6208

6208

6208

5861

5861

5861

R-squared

0.282

0.282

0.281

0.278

0.280

0.278

Country FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Time FE

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

No. of countries

46

46

46

44

44

44

P-value F-test

     

0.513

  1. Table reports results for the nonlinear impact of vaccines on CO.. Columns 1 through 3 add additional terms for the square of the share of population that is vaccinated to the specification in Eq. (1). Column 4 through 6 test use different specification to test for interactions between the share of population fully vaccinated and the vaccine surprise variable. Column 4 uses a simple interaction term, column 5 is based on different quartiles of the vaccination rate (Eq. 2), while column 6 allows for interactions based on a smooth transition function. The regressions control for stringency of containment measures, other non-pharmaceutical interventions and health policy controls (one lag), lags of mobility (one lag), lagged new cases, (one lag), lagged NO2 and CO emissions (one lag) country-specific time trends, as well as country and time fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level. ***, **, and * represent statistically significant at 1, 5, and 10%, respectively