The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 13 Effect of vaccines—role of containment and new cases using CO and Mobility

Variables	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Variables	CO	CO	Retail	Retail
Surprises in vaccines administered (per capita)	0.000330	0.001720	0.717312***	0.995808***
	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.147)	(0.367)
Interaction with stringency measures quartiles (1st quartile omitted)
2nd quartile of containment measures * surprises in vaccines	0.000709		− 0.191644
	(0.000)		(0.131)
3rd quartile of containment measures * surprises in vaccines	0.000208		− 0.431621**
	(0.001)		(0.179)
4th quartile of containment measures * surprises in vaccines	− 0.001011		− 0.384407*
	(0.001)		(0.227)
Interaction with new cases quartiles (1st quartile omitted)
2nd quartile of new cases * surprises in vaccines		− 0.001192		− 0.402936
		(0.002)		(0.354)
3rd quartile of new cases * surprises in vaccines		− 0.001486		− 0.513714
		(0.002)		(0.382)
4th quartile of new cases * surprises in vaccines		− 0.001395		− 0.440691
		(0.002)		(0.350)
Observations	5861	5861	5839	5839
R-squared	0.278	0.278	0.449	0.452
Country FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Time FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Country-time trend	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
No. of countries	44	44	44	44

Table reports results for Eq. 3. The dependent variable is change in CO per capita in columns 1 and 2 and change in retail and recreational mobility in columns 3 and 4. The forecast error in vaccine rollout is interacted with the stringency of containment measures (categorized into four quartiles) in column 1 and 3. The forecast error in vaccine rollout is interacted with the level of new cases (moving average over seven days and also categorized into four quartiles) in column 2 and 4. The variables are lagged one day. All regressions control for stringency of containment measures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions, lagged mobility and NO₂ per capita, country specific time trends, as well as country and time fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1