The effects of COVID-19 vaccines on economic activity

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 5 Effect of vaccines on economic activity—role of containment new cases

Variables	(1)	(2)
Variables	NO₂	NO₂
Surprises in vaccines administered (per capita)	0.014502*** (0.003)	0.036355** (0.014)
Interaction with stringency measures quartiles (1st quartile omitted)
2nd Quartile of Containment Measures * Surprises in vaccines	− 0.001964
	(0.001)
3rd Quartile of Containment Measures * Surprises in vaccines	− 0.005628
	(0.004)
4th Quartile of Containment Measures * Surprises in vaccines	− 0.012473**
	(0.005)
Interaction with new cases quartiles (1st quartile omitted)
2nd Quartile of New Cases * Surprises in vaccines		− 0.020599
		(0.012)
3rd Quartile of New Cases * Surprises in vaccines		− 0.029437**
		(0.014)
4th Quartile of New Cases * Surprises in vaccines		− 0.026988*
		(0.014)
Observations	5859	5859
R-squared	0.334	0.335
Country FE	Yes	Yes
Time FE	Yes	Yes
Country-Time Trend	Yes	Yes
No. of countries	44	44

Table reports results for Eq. 3. The dependent variable is change in NO₂ per capita in columns 1 and 2 and change in retail and recreational mobility in columns 3 and 4. The forecast error in vaccine rollout is interacted with the stringency of containment measures (categorized into four quartiles) in column 1 and 3. The forecast error in vaccine rollout is interacted with the level of new cases (moving average over seven days and also categorized into four quartiles) in column 2 and 4. The variable are lagged one day. All regressions control for stringency of containment measures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions, lagged mobility and NO₂ per capita, country specific time trends, as well as country and time fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the country level. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1