Fig. 13

Cumulative impulse responses of policy P, behavior (consumption) B, and infection growth I to a unit policy shock (only Phase 3). The impulse responses are estimated using the recursively ordered VAR(4) in (4) with \(k=3\) and \(P=\Delta\) \({\text {KSI}}^+\), \(B=\Delta \ln {\text {NTRX}}\), and \(I = \ln R_e\) with time fixed effects. The data span September 28, 2020, until January 17, 2021. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence intervals based on a wild bootstrap procedure with 5000 repetitions. The horizontal axes depict the time horizon in weeks. The vertical axes show the level response of the \({\text {KSI}}^+\) (left), \(\ln {\text {NTRX}}\) (middle), \(\ln {\text {NINF}}\) (right)