Fig. 8

Cumulative impulse responses with indirect channels shut off. The impulse responses are estimated using the recursively ordered VAR(4) in (4) with \(k=3\) and \(P=\Delta\) \({\text {KSI}}^+\), \(B=\Delta \ln {\text {NTRX}}\), and \(I = \ln R_e\) with cantonal fixed effects (blue). The red lines represent the cumulative effect when the effect through the third variable in the system is artificially shut off. The data span September 28, 2020, until April 18, 2021. The shaded areas represent the 95% confidence intervals based on a wild bootstrap procedure with 5000 repetitions. The horizontal axes depict the time horizon in weeks. The vertical axes show the level response of \(\ln {\text {NTRX}}\) (left and middle) and \(\ln {\text {NINF}}\) (right)