Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland

Pleninger, Regina; Streicher, Sina; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

doi:10.1186/s41937-022-00083-7

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 2 VAR(3) with canton fixed effects

From: Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland

	Dependent variable
	\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index	\(\Delta \ln\) Number of debit transactions	ln effective reproductive number
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 1)	− 0.067*	0.0004	− 0.006***
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 1)	(0.037)	(0.001)	(0.002)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 2)	− 0.058*	0.0002	− 0.006***
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 2)	(0.033)	(0.001)	(0.001)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 3)	0.051	0.001	0.005***
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 3)	(0.034)	(0.001)	(0.002)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 4)	0.098**	− 0.011***	0.001
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 4)	(0.041)	(0.001)	(0.002)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 1)		− 0.262***	0.109**
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 1)		(0.041)	(0.055)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 2)		− 0.329***	0.048
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 2)		(0.040)	(0.054)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 3)		0.009	0.200***
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 3)		(0.039)	(0.053)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 4)		− 0.070*	0.114**
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 4)		(0.041)	(0.055)
ln Effective reproductive number (lag 1)			0.544***
ln Effective reproductive number (lag 1)			(0.041)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 2)			− 0.322***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 2)			(0.044)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 3)	1.565*	− 0.103***	0.212***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 3)	(0.935)	(0.028)	(0.045)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 4)	5.969***	− 0.006	− 0.054
ln effective reproductive number (lag 4)	(0.808)	(0.024)	(0.033)
Public holiday	5.806***	− 0.462***	0.141*
Public holiday	(1.845)	(0.056)	(0.074)
School holiday	1.395***	− 0.090***	− 0.002
School holiday	(0.317)	(0.010)	(0.013)
\(\Delta\) maximum temperature (in °C)	0.111***	0.002*	− 0.001
\(\Delta\) maximum temperature (in °C)	(0.029)	(0.001)	(0.001)
\(\Delta\) precipitation (in mm)	− 0.061**	− 0.001	0.002
\(\Delta\) precipitation (in mm)	(0.028)	(0.001)	(0.001)
\(\Delta\) sunshine hours	0.025	0.001	− 0.004
\(\Delta\) sunshine hours	(0.072)	(0.002)	(0.003)
\(\Delta\) mean relative humidity (in %)	− 0.065***	0.0005	− 0.001
\(\Delta\) mean relative humidity (in %)	(0.020)	(0.001)	(0.001)
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons fully vaccinated (CH)	− 0.629***	0.004*	0.012***
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons fully vaccinated (CH)	(0.077)	(0.002)	(0.003)
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons partially vaccinated (CH)	0.004	− 0.007***	− 0.004**
	(0.045)	(0.002)	(0.002)
Observations	650	650	650
R\(^{2}\)	0.456	0.484	0.496
Adjusted R\(^{2}\)	0.422	0.447	0.459
Residual std. error	2.646 (df = 610)	0.078 (df = 606)	0.104 (df = 604)
F statistic	13.135*** (df = 39; 610)	13.209*** (df = 43; 606)	13.227*** (df = 45; 604)

The model specification is given in (4) with canton fixed effects and four weeks of lags (\(p=4\)), \(P=\Delta\) \({\text {KSI}}^+\), \(B=\Delta \ln {\text {NTRX}}\), and \(I = \ln R_e\). The sample includes weekly data from September 28, 2020 until April 18, 2021 for each of the 26 cantons. \(\Delta\) denotes the first difference operator and ln the natural logarithm. *\(p<0.1\); **\(p<0.05\); ***\(p<0.01\)

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