Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland

Pleninger, Regina; Streicher, Sina; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

doi:10.1186/s41937-022-00083-7

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 3 VAR(3) with canton and time fixed effects

From: Do COVID-19 containment measures work? Evidence from Switzerland

	Dependent variable
	\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index	\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions	ln effective reproductive number
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 1)	0.030	0.001	− 0.012***
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 1)	(0.032)	(0.003)	(0.004)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 2)	− 0.139***	0.004	− 0.003
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 2)	(0.029)	(0.002)	(0.004)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 3)	− 0.096***	0.002	− 0.004
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 3)	(0.028)	(0.002)	(0.004)
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 4)	− 0.038	0.0003	− 0.006
\(\Delta\) KOF Stringency-Plus Index (lag 4)	(0.028)	(0.002)	(0.004)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 1)		− 0.170***	0.132**
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 1)		(0.037)	(0.066)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 2)		− 0.196***	0.044
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 2)		(0.036)	(0.065)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 3)		− 0.160***	0.079
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 3)		(0.036)	(0.064)
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 4)		− 0.209***	0.071
\(\Delta \ln\) number of debit transactions (lag 4)		(0.036)	(0.064)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 1)			0.477***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 1)			(0.042)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 2)			− 0.368***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 2)			(0.046)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 3)	0.665**	− 0.083***	0.229***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 3)	(0.284)	(0.022)	(0.045)
ln effective reproductive number (lag 4)	0.249	− 0.014	− 0.140***
ln effective reproductive number (lag 4)	(0.279)	(0.022)	(0.041)
Public holiday	− 0.735	− 0.452***	− 0.151
Public holiday	(0.909)	(0.072)	(0.127)
School holiday	− 0.056	− 0.041***	0.030*
School holiday	(0.110)	(0.009)	(0.015)
\(\Delta\) maximum temperature (in °C)	− 0.028	− 0.001	− 0.003
\(\Delta\) maximum temperature (in °C)	(0.030)	(0.002)	(0.004)
\(\Delta\) precipitation (in mm)	− 0.007	− 0.006***	− 0.001
\(\Delta\) precipitation (in mm)	(0.013)	(0.001)	(0.002)
\(\Delta\) sunshine hours	− 0.026	− 0.002	− 0.003
\(\Delta\) sunshine hours	(0.029)	(0.002)	(0.004)
\(\Delta\) mean relative humidity (in %)	− 0.012	− 0.001**	− 0.001
\(\Delta\) mean relative humidity (in %)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.001)
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons fully vaccinated (CH)	− 0.027	− 0.012	− 0.007
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons fully vaccinated (CH)	(0.142)	(0.011)	(0.020)
\(\Delta\) share65 \(\cdot\) persons partially vaccinated (CH)	− 0.049	− 0.017*	− 0.036**
	(0.117)	(0.009)	(0.016)
Observations	650	650	650
\(R^{2}\)	0.963	0.749	0.572
Adjusted \(R^{2}\)	0.959	0.720	0.521
Residual std. error	0.707 (df = 586)	0.056 (df = 582)	0.098 (df = 580)
F statistic	240.025*** (df = 63; 586)	25.869*** (df = 67; 582)	11.214*** (df = 69; 580)

The model specification is given in (4) with canton and time fixed effects and four weeks of lags (\(p=4\)), \(P=\Delta\) \({\text {KSI}}^+\), \(B=\Delta \ln {\text {NTRX}}\), and \(I = \ln R_e\). The sample includes weekly data from September 28, 2020 until April 18, 2021 for each of the 26 cantons. \(\Delta\) denotes the first difference operator and ln the natural logarithm
*\(p<0.1\); **\(p<0.05\); ***\(p<0.01\)

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