Table 6 VAR in differences, results, 1855–2015

First lag CPI inflation

0.71

(0.46)

−0.68

(0.52)

0.98

(0.16)

0.03

(0.22)

1.50

(0.17)

0.32

(0.48)

0.72

(0.13)

−0.57

(0.21)

Second lag CPI inflation

0.02

(0.55)

0.13

(0.62)

−0.17

(0.23)

−0.44

(0.30)

−1.16

(0.21)

−0.57

(0.60)

0.02

(0.16)

−0.04

(0.28)

Third lag CPI inflation

−0.80

(0.43)

1.08

(0.49)

0.07

(0.20)

−0.24

(0.27)

0.38

(0.15)

0.22

(0.42)

0.12

(0.13)

0.23

(0.21)

First lag real GDP growth

0.52

(0.41)

−0.55

(0.46)

0.23

(0.13)

−0.27

(0.17)

−0.03

(0.10)

−0.53

(0.28)

0.32

(0.05)

0.08

(0.09)

Second lag real GDP growth

0.53

(0.52)

−0.40

(0.58)

0.07

(0.13)

−0.54

(0.17)

−0.34

(0.09)

−0.19

(0.27)

−0.02

(0.07)

0.15

(0.11)

Third lag real GDP growth

−0.84

(0.45)

1.10

(0.51)

−0.20

(0.14)

−0.24

(0.19)

0.46

(0.11)

0.34

(0.30)

−0.04

(0.06)

−0.04

(0.10)

Constant

0.43

(4.01)

0.81

(4.50)

0.33

(1.04)

6.11

(1.38)

0.12

(0.62)

3.36

(1.79)

−0.40

(0.41)

2.72

(0.69)

Obs:

24

Obs:

41

Obs:

27

Obs:

69