Heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: the Swiss franc appreciation of 2015

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 1 Pre-trend tests of alternative control groups

Control group	Mean pre-trend difference	N	Countries
Europe (baseline)	0.29	33	Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Norway, UK, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey
European Union	\(-\)1.94	28	Baseline minus Norway, Serbia, Iceland, North Macedonia, Turkey
Eurozone	\(-\)0.49	19	Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain
Europe excluding south	0.32	29	Baseline minus Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal
Germanic countries	5.26	2	Austria, Germany
Direct neighbors	4.31	4	France, Italy, Austria, Germany
Non-EUR currency	\(-\)3.91	9	UK, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden
High GDP per capita	0.92	10	Luxembourg, Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Iceland, Austria, Sweden, Germany, Belgium

Pre-trend differences are computed for all categories of the HICP by running two time trend regressions on the Swiss and control group prices (equation 1), using monthly data from January to December 2014. The pre-trend difference is defined as the difference between the two resulting slope coefficients: \(b_i^{\rm control}-b_i^{\rm CH}\). Only the average difference across all 85 HICP categories is shown. N denotes the number of countries in the proposed control group