Table 1 Explanatory variables under investigation
Economic outlook | Source | Freq | Lag | Financial variables | Source | Freq | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnover Index in Retail Trade (Overall) | HSA | M | 3 | Oil (Brent) USD | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Turnover Index in Retail Trade (except automotive fuel) | HSA | M | 3 | EUR/USD exchange rate | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Retail Trade Volume Index (Overall) | HSA | M | 3 | Oil (Brent) Euro | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Retail Trade Volume Index (except automotive fuel) | HSA | M | 3 | Athens General Stock Exchange Index | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Consumer Credit | BoG | M | 2 | FTSE Athens Stock Exchange Index | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
New Private Passenger Car Registrations (ELSTAT) | HSA | M | 2 | EURO STOXX 50—SX5E | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Private Building Activity (Construction permits) | HSA | M | 3 | NEXT 150—N150 | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Construction Activity (Cement production) | HSA | M | 3 | SPEURO | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Housing Loans | BoG | M | 2 | Germany Government Bond 10Y—GDBR10 | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Credit to the Private Sector (Corporations and Households) | BoG | M | 2 | Greek Government Bond—10YGGGB10 | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Credit (Corporations) | BoG | M | 2 | 10Â year bond spreads | Bloomberg | D | 0 |
Credit (Individuals and private non-profit institutions) | BoG | M | 2 | M1 | BoG | M | 3 |
Deposits by households and enterprises | BoG | M | 2 | M2 | BoG | M | 3 |
Exports of Goods | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | M3 | BoG | M | 3 |
Imports of Goods | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | Prices | Â | Â | Â |
Exports of Services | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI Total (Industrial Produrcer Prices) | HSA | M | 1 |
Imports of Services | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI Total (Industry excluding Energy on the Domestic Market) | HSA | M | 1 |
Tourism receipts | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI (Intermediate Goods) | HSA | M | 1 |
Transport receipts | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI (Capital Goods) | HSA | M | 1 |
Tourism payments | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI (Durable Consumer Goods) | HSA | M | 1 |
Transport payments | BoP-BoG | M | 2 | PPI(Non-durable Consumer Goods) | HSA | M | 1 |
Sentiment Indices | Â | Â | Â | PPI Total (Consumer Goods) | HSA | M | 1 |
Industrial Production Index in Manufacturing | HSA | M | 2 | PPI (Energy) | HSA | M | 1 |
Turnover Index in Industry | HSA | M | 2 | PPI (Energy/Fuel) | HSA | M | 1 |
New Orders in Industry (Total) | HSA | M | 3 | PPI (Industrial Producer Prices Non-Domestic Market) | HSA | M | 1 |
New Orders in Industry (Non-Domestic Market) | HSA | M | 3 | PPI (Import prices in Industry) | HSA | M | 1 |
Unemployment rate | HSA | M | 1 | CPI | HSA | M | 1 |
Business Expectations in Construction | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP | HSA | M | 1 |
Business Expectations in Manufacturing | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP Euro Area | HSA | M | 1 |
Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) Amplitude adjusted | OECD | M | 2 | HICP (Unprocessed Food) | HSA | M | 1 |
Industry / Business Climate Indicator (BCI) | OECD | M | 2 | HICP (Processed Food) | HSA | M | 1 |
Economic Sentiment Indicator (Greece) | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP (Industrial Goods excl Energy) | HSA | M | 1 |
Industrial Confidence Indicator | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP (Energy) | HSA | M | 1 |
Services Confidence Indicator | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP (Services) | HSA | M | 1 |
Consumer Confidence Indicator | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP (excl. energy) | HSA | M | 1 |
Retail Trade Confidence Indicator | FEIR | M | 1 | HICP Core (Goods excl energy and unprocessed food) | HSA | M | 1 |
Construction Confidence Indicator | FEIR | M | 1 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Economic Sentiment Indicator (Euro Area) | European Commission | M | 1 | Â | Â | Â | Â |
PMI | Markit Economics | M | 1 | Â | Â | Â | Â |