Skip to main content

Advertisement

Impacts of Global Warming on Energy Use for Heating and Cooling with Full Rebound Effects in Switzerland

Article metrics

Summary

This paper analyzes the impacts of the modified needs for space heating and cooling due to global warming on the quantities of energy used for space conditioning and overall. It thereby estimates direct and total rebound effects, the latter including changes in consumption and production triggered by changes in energy needs for space conditioning by households, services and industry. A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate a range of climate and impacts scenarios for Switzerland over the period 2010–2060. We find significant welfare gains from reduced heating needs, exceeding largely the costs of the additional electricity needed for cooling. We also find large rebound effects. For instance, while the climate scenario A1b would allow households to reduce their consumption of fossil energy for room heating by 15.9 %, actual reductions are only 10.4%, which implies a direct rebound effect of 35 %. Economy wide, fossil energy consumption could decrease by 4.3% but does so only by 2.7%, which represents a total rebound effect of 37%.

References

  1. Aebischer, Bernard, Giacomo Catenazzi, George Henderson, and Martin Jakob (2007), “Impact of Climate Change on Thermal Comfort, Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Europe”, in Saving Energy — Just Do It!, European Council for an Energy Efficiënt Economy ECEEE.

  2. Allan, Grant, Nick Hanley, Peter Mc Gregor, Kim Swales, and Karen Turner (2007), “The Impact of Increased Efficiency in the Industrial Use of Energy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for the United Kingdom”, Energy Economics, 29(4), pp. 779–798.

  3. Armington, Paul S. (1969), “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production”, Imf Staff Papers, 16, pp. 159–178.

  4. Auffhammer, Maximilian, and Erin T. Mansur (2014), “Measuring Climatic Impacts on Energy Consumption: A Review of the Empirical Literature”, Energy Economics, 46(0), pp. 522–530.

  5. Azar, Christian, and Hadi Dowlatabadi (1999), “A Review of Technical Change in Assessment of Climate Policy”, Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 24(1), pp. 513–544.

  6. Bernard, A., and M. Vielle (2008), “GEMINI-E3, A General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and the Environment”, Computational Management Science, 5(3), pp. 173–206.

  7. Bundesamt Für Energie BFE (2011), “Grundlagen für die Energiestrategie des Bundesrates; Frühjahr 2011, Aktualisierung des Energieperpektiven 2035”, Tech. rep., Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft.

  8. C2SM, Meteoswiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, and OcCC (2011), Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011, Zurich.

  9. Christenson, M., H. Manz, and D. Gyalistras (2006), “Climate Warming Impact on Degree-Days and Building Energy Demand in Switzerland”, Energy Conversion and Management, 47, pp. 671–686.

  10. Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, and Paul Dowling (2014), “Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the Energy Sector”, Energy Economics, 46, pp. 531–538.

  11. Craig, Robin Kundis (2011), “Energy System Impact”, Tech. rep., FSU College of Law, Public Law Research Paper No. 503.

  12. De Cian, Enrica, Elisa Lanzi, and Roberto Roson (2013), “Seasonal Temperature Variations and Energy Demand”, Climatic Change, 116(3–4), pp. 805–825.

  13. Dimaranan, B. V. (2006), Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 6 Data Base, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University: Center for Global Trade Analysis Purdue University.

  14. Dimitropoulos, John (2007), “Energy Productivity Improvements and the Rebound Effect: An Overview of the State of Knowledge”, Energy Policy, 35(12), pp. 6354–6363.

  15. Duerinck, J., N. Renders, and K. Schoeters (2008), “Assessment and Improvement of Methodologies used for Greenhouse Gas Projection”, Tech. rep., Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek.

  16. Eboli, Fabio, Ramiro Parrado, and Roberto Roson (2010), “Climate-Change Feedback on Economie Growth: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model”, Environment and Development Economics, 15, pp. 515–533.

  17. Faust, Anne-Kathrin, Camille Gonseth, and Marc Vielle (2015), “The Economie Impact of Climate Driven Changes in Water Availability in Switerland”, Water Policy, 17(5), pp. 848–864.

  18. Frank, Th. (2005), “Climate Change Impacts on Building Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Switzerland”, Energy and Buildings, 37(11), pp. 1175–1185.

  19. Greening, Lorna A., David L. Greene, and Carmen Difiglio (2000), “Energy Efficiency and Consumption — the Rebound Effect — a Survey”, Energy Policy, 28(67), pp. 389–401.

  20. Hamududu, B., and A. Killingtveit (2012), “Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower”, Energies, 5, pp. 305–322.

  21. Howell, Ronald H., Harryj. Sauer, and William J. Coad (2005), Principles of Heating Ventilating and Air Conditioning, Atlanta, Ga.: American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers.

  22. International Energy Agency (2013a), Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris: OECD/IEA.

  23. International Energy Agency (2013b), World Energy Outlook 2013.

  24. IPCC (2000), Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press.

  25. IPCC (2013), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I of the Fifth Assessment, Cambridge, Uk, and New York, Ny, Usa: Cambridge University Press.

  26. Joshi, Santosh, Marc Vielle, FrÉdéric Babonneau, Neil Edwards, and Phil Holden (2016), “Physical and economie consequences of sea-level rise: A coupled GIS and CGE analysis under uncertainties”, Environmental and Resource Economics, 65(4), pp. 813–839.

  27. Kirchner, Almut, Andreas Kemmler, Peter Hofer, Mario Keller, Martin Jakob, and Giacomo Catenazzi (2010), „Analyse des schweizerischen Energieverbrauchs 2000–2009 nach Verwendungszwecken”, Tech. rep., Bundesamt für Energie Bfe.

  28. Kranzl, Lukas, Marcus Hummel, Wolfgang Loibl, Andreas Muller, Irene Schicker, Agne Toleikyte, Gabriel Bachner, and Birgit Bednar-Friedl (2015), Economie Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts, Developmentofa Cross-Sectoral Framework and Results for Austria, chapter “Buildings: Heating and Cooling”, pp. 235–255, Springer.

  29. Labriet, Maryse, Santosh R. Joshi, Marc Vielle, Philip B. Holden, Neil R. Edwards, Amit Kanudia, Richard Loulou, and Frédéric Babonneau (2015), “Worldwide Impacts of Climate Change on Energy for Heating and Cooling”, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(7), pp. 1111–1136.

  30. Lecca, Patrizio, Peter G. Mcgregor, J. Kim Swales, and Karen Turner (2014), “The Added Value from a General Equilibrium Analysis of Increased Efficiency in Household Energy Use”, Ecological Economics, 100(0), pp. 51–62.

  31. Lehner, B., G. Czisch, and S. Vassolo (2005), “The Impact of Global Change on the Hydropower Potential of Europe: A Model-Based Analysis”, Energy Policy, 33(7), pp. 839–855.

  32. Linnerud, K., T. K. Mideksa, and G. S. Eskeland (2011), “The Impact of Climate Change on Nuclear Power Supply”, The Energy Journal, 32(1), pp. 149–168.

  33. Nathani, C., D. Sutter, R. van Nieuwkoop, M. Peter, S. Kraner, M. Holzhey, H. Rütter, and R. Zandonella (2011), “Energy Related Disaggregation of the Swiss Input-Output Table”, Tech. rep., SFOE, EWG Publication, Bern.

  34. OcCC and Proclim (2007), “Climate Change and Switzerland 2050: Expected Impacts on Environment, Society and Economy”, Tech. rep., Organe consultatif sur les changements climatiques.

  35. OECD (2015), “The Economie Consequences of Climate Change”, Tech. rep., OECD Publishing, Paris.

  36. Prognos (2012), „Die Energieperspektiven für die Schweiz bis 2050 — Energienachfrage und Elektrizitatsangebot in der Schweiz 2000–2050”, Tech. rep., Study commissioned by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, Basel.

  37. Roson, Roberto, Francesco Bosello, and Enrica De Cian (2007), “Climate Change, Energy Demand and Market Power in a General Equilibrium Model of the World Economy”, Working Papers 2007.71, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

  38. Rübbelke, D., and S. Vögele (2011), “Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector”, Environmental Science & Policy, 14(1), 53–63.

  39. Seljom, Pernille, Eva Rosenberg, Audun Fidje, Jan Erik Haugen, Michaela Meir, John Rekstad, and Thore Jarlset (2011), “Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy System — a Case Study of Norway”, Energy Policy, 39(11), pp. 7310–7321.

  40. Nations, Department of Economics and Population, Division Social Afeairs (2011), “World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision”, Tech. rep.

  41. Wing, Ian Sue (2006), “The Synthesis of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Approaches to Climate Policy: Electric Power Technologies and the Cost of Limiting Us CO2 Emissions”, Energy Policy, 34, pp. 3847–3869.

  42. Winkler, R., C. Almer, C. Bader, C. Gonseth, J. Laurent-Luchetti, P. Thalmann, and M. Vielle (2014), Ch2014 — Impact, Toward Quantitative Scenarios of Climate Change Impacts in Switzerland, chapter “Energy Consumption of Buildings — Direct Impacts of a Warming Climate and Rebound Effects”, pp. 99–105, OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope and ProClim.

Download references

Author information

Correspondence to Camille Gonseth.

Additional information

Acknowledgements: The research leading to these results has received funding from the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment. We would like to thank Anne-Kathrin Faust, Pamela Koellner-Heck and Roland Hohmann for their helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Florent Baume for his research assistance. Finally, we are grateful to the participants of the ETH CEPE lunch seminar in Energy and of the GTAP 2012 Conference for their comments and suggestions. Two anonymous reviewers are also gratefully thanked for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gonseth, C., Thalmann, P. & Vielle, M. Impacts of Global Warming on Energy Use for Heating and Cooling with Full Rebound Effects in Switzerland. Swiss J Economics Statistics 153, 341–369 (2017) doi:10.1007/BF03399511

Download citation

  • JEL-Classification
  • C63
  • Q41
  • Q54

Keywords

  • climate change
  • heating
  • cooling
  • computable general equilibrium model
  • Switzerland
  • adaptation
  • rebound effect