Articles

The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017

This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for 1974–2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information use...

Authors: Rebecca Stuart

Real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy

We study macro-financial linkages and their importance within the Swiss economy from a network perspective. First, we investigate the real-financial connectedness in the Swiss economy, using the KOF economic b...

Authors: Erhan Uluceviz and Kamil Yilmaz

Are asylum seekers more likely to work with more inclusive labor market access regulations?

In the face of recent refugee migration, early integration of asylum seekers into the labor market has been proposed as an important mechanism for easing their economic and social lot in the short as well as i...

Authors: Michaela Slotwinski, Alois Stutzer and Roman Uhlig

What Goliaths and Davids among Swiss firms tell us about expected returns on Swiss asset markets

Motivated by recent US evidence, we evaluate the predictive power of changes in the weight of large firms in the aggregate stock market (“Goliath vs David” (GVD)) for Swiss stock market returns and bond market...

Authors: David R. Haab and Thomas Nitschka

Welfare effects of technology-based climate policies in liberalized electricity markets: seeing beyond total system cost

This paper is a contribution to assessing the Swiss energy transition, with an emphasis on the consequences of decommissioning the nuclear power plants for the electricity market and the whole economy. We expe...

Authors: Sophie Maire, Philippe Thalmann and Frank Vöhringer

Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios

Collaborating under the Swiss Energy Modeling Platform (SEMP), five modeling teams (employing an energy systems model and four macroeconomic models with a focus on energy) have carried out a multi-model compar...

Authors: Florian Landis, Adriana Marcucci, Sebastian Rausch, Ramachandran Kannan and Lucas Bretschger

Cost distribution and equity of climate policy in Switzerland

Swiss targets for climate policy require significant reductions of emissions by 2050. While such reductions can be achieved in a cost-efficient manner by employing taxes on greenhouse gas emissions, such taxes...

Authors: Florian Landis

Lowering CO₂ emissions in the Swiss transport sector

In Switzerland, transportation represents 41% of CO₂ emissions from energy combustion (2016), a much higher share than in the European Union (EU) (28%) or even the USA (34%). While total Swiss CO₂ emissions decre...

Authors: Philippe Thalmann and Marc Vielle

Growth impacts of Swiss steering-based climate policies

This paper studies the growth impacts of realizing two long-term carbon targets in Switzerland (reducing CO₂ emissions in 2050 by 72% and 80% relative to 1990 levels) with alternative steering-based climate polic...

Authors: Adriana Marcucci and Lin Zhang

Confederation debt management since 1970

This paper analyzes the Confederation’s debt management. The Confederation actively manages roll over and interest rate risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt-to-GDP levels. It furthe...

Authors: Basil Guggenheim, Mario Meichle and Thomas Nellen

The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence

Knowing the part of currency in circulation that is used for transactions is important information for a central bank. For several countries, the share of banknotes that is hoarded or circulates abroad is size...

Authors: Katrin Assenmacher, Franz Seitz and Jörn Tenhofen

A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium

This paper sheds light on Swiss franc LIBOR futures, which are often used to derive interest rate expectations. We show that the differences between LIBOR futures and realized rates (excess returns) are, on av...

Authors: Lucas Marc Fuhrer, Basil Guggenheim and Matthias Jüttner

Nominal stability over two centuries

I assess the stability of the monetary environment in Switzerland over the past two centuries. In order to control for transitory measurement errors, in particular in nineteenth century data, I use an unobserv...

Authors: Daniel Kaufmann

Preaching water but drinking wine? Relative performance evaluation in international banking

The rise in the level of executive compensation in international banking in the last two decades has been striking. At the same time, corporate declarations of relative performance evaluation (RPE) have enjoye...

Authors: Dragan Ilić, Sonja Pisarov and Peter S. Schmidt

Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies

We study the reaction of the CHF and JPY to macroeconomic surprises and changes in the broader market environment before and during the crisis using high-frequency data. Results show that the CHF and JPY are t...

Authors: Adrian Jäggi, Martin Schlegel and Attilio Zanetti

How can states benefit from the equity premium puzzle? Debt as revenue source for Swiss cantons

This paper addresses the question of the optimal debt level of a state (canton) that issues new bonds and subsequently invests the borrowed capital. For that purpose, we first estimate the effect of the debt l...

Authors: Ramon Christen and Nils C. Soguel

The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries

This paper reconsiders the Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. We analyze an OECD country panel from 1970 to 2008 and compare three data sets on sectoral productivity, including newly constructed data on total ...

Authors: Matthias Gubler and Christoph Sax

Culture, money attitudes and economic outcomes

Using novel survey data, we examine attitudes towards money and to what extent they affect economic outcomes in Switzerland. We find that three main types of attitudes towards money co-exist: the prestige and ...

Authors: Caroline Henchoz, Tristan Coste and Boris Wernli

Financial literacy and the need for financial education: evidence and implications

Authors: Annamaria Lusardi

The U.S. Tax Program for Swiss banks: what determined the penalties?

The U.S. Tax Program for Swiss banks is a very significant part of the recent history of the Swiss financial industry. It has accelerated the transformation of the Swiss banking industry from a system that rel...

Authors: Yvan Lengwiler and Albana Saljihaj

Unbiased weighted variance and skewness estimators for overlapping returns

This article develops unbiased weighted variance and skewness estimators for overlapping return distributions. These estimators extend the variance estimation methods constructed in Bod et. al. (Applied Financ...

Authors: Stephen Taylor and Ming Fang

Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland

This paper studies the transmission of changes in short-term interest rates to longer-term government bond yields when interest rates are at very low levels or negative. We focus on Switzerland, where short-te...

Authors: Christian Grisse and Silvio Schumacher

Openness and productivity of the Swiss economy

This paper analyzes the connection between openness and economic performance in Switzerland. Considering different dimensions of openness, we show that the Swiss economy is classified as relatively open. Never...

Authors: Reto Föllmi, Angela Fuest, Philipp an de Meulen, Martin Micheli, Torsten Schmidt and Lina Zwick

Optimal equity capital requirements for large Swiss banks

Ten years after the worst financial crisis of the post-war period, Switzerland has established a Too-Big-To-Fail (TBTF) framework. Under this framework, the two large Swiss banks are subject to substantial cap...

Authors: Georg Junge and Peter Kugler

Debt, economic growth, and interest rates: an empirical study of the Swiss case, presenting a new long-term dataset: 1894–2014

In this paper, relations between public debt, economic growth, and long-term interest rates in Switzerland from 1894 to 2014 are examined. For this purpose, an original long-term dataset on the general gross p...

Authors: Guillaume Guex and Sébastien Guex

Childcare and maternal part-time employment: a natural experiment using Swiss cantons

Fuelled by federal stimuli of 440 million Swiss francs, the staggered expansion of childcare in many cantons allows the evaluation of this family policy on female labour supply. With new cantonal data, this st...

Authors: Laura Ravazzini

On the rewards to international investing: a safe haven currency perspective

The safe haven property of the Swiss franc presents a specific challenge for internationally minded Swiss-based investors. The central issue is whether the traditional under-performance of Swiss assets is made...

Authors: Jean-Pierre Danthine and Samuel Danthine

International trade and unemployment: towards an investigation of the Swiss case

The topic of this paper has been motivated by the rising unemployment rate of low-skilled relative to high-skilled labour in Switzerland. Between 1991 and 2014, Switzerland experienced the highest relative inc...

Authors: Lukas Mohler, Rolf Weder and Simone Wyss

Comparative politics and the synthetic control method revisited: a note on Abadie et al. (2015)

Recently, Abadie et al. (Am J Polit Sci 59:495–510, 2015) have expanded synthetic control methods by the so-called cross-validation technique. We find that their results are not being reproduced when alternati...

Authors: Stefan Klößner, Ashok Kaul, Gregor Pfeifer and Manuel Schieler

Interest-parity conditions during the era of the classical gold standard (1880–1914)—evidence from the investment demand for bills of exchange in Europe

This paper examines interest-parity conditions that arguably held as regards the investment demand for bills of exchange during the classical gold standard (1880–1914). Contemporaneous guides to the foreign ex...

Authors: Nils Herger

The Swiss franc safety premium

This paper applies a recent method proposed by Maggiori (The U.S. Dollar Safety Premium, 2013) to estimate the Swiss franc safety premium. The results show that the three-step instrumental variable approach as us...

Authors: Jessica Leutert

The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects

The aim of this paper is to present a review of the legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects of secessions from an economic perspective. This survey provides interesting insights into recent events such as th...

Authors: Thierry Madiès, Grégoire Rota-Grasiozi, Jean-Pierre Tranchant and Cyril Trépier

Money demand under free banking: Switzerland 1851–1906

This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks’ balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number ...

Authors: Stefan Gerlach and Peter Kugler

Inheritance flows in Switzerland, 1911–2011

We estimate the size of inheritance flows in Switzerland over a long span of data, in close analogy to the study for France by Piketty (Q J Econ 126(3):1071–1131, 2011). We find that inheritance flows had been...

Authors: Marius Brülhart, Didier Dupertuis and Elodie Moreau

Factor substitution in Swiss manufacturing: empirical evidence using micro panel data

This paper analyzes the relationship between factor substitutability and the energy intensity of manufacturing firms. Specifically, we compare the degree of substitutability between the input factors capital, ...

Authors: Sebastian M. Deininger, Lukas Mohler and Daniel Mueller

How does depreciations management affect subsequent fiscal performance? The case of the Swiss cantons

Creative accounting allows governments and, more particularly, finance ministers to somehow manage financial reports to achieve specific and possibly self-interested goals. It is usually used to hide deficits....

Authors: Maxime Clémenceau and Nils Soguel

Methods to identify linear network models: a review

In many contexts we may be interested in understanding whether direct connections between agents, such as declared friendships in a classroom or family links in a rural village, affect their outcomes. In this ...

Authors: Arun Advani and Bansi Malde

Economics: the view from below

Authors: Marion Fourcade

Economists: moral realists or real moralists? Comment on Fourcade and Brunetti

Authors: Monika Bütler

The sovereign money initiative in Switzerland: an economic assessment

The sovereign money initiative will be submitted to the Swiss people in 2018. This paper reviews the arguments behind the initiative and discusses its potential impact. I argue that several arguments are incon...

Authors: Philippe Bacchetta

On economists as policy advisors with applications to Switzerland

This paper analyses the role of economists in advising political agents. Based on the experience in the recent financial crisis, it starts with the important role of expectations management. Economists should ...

Authors: Aymo Brunetti

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Authors: Martin Brown, Volker Grossmann, Rafael Lalive and Cédric Tille

How Reliable are Cointegration-Based Estimates for Wealth Effects on Consumption? Evidence from Switzerland

According to economie theory, the intertemporal budget constraint of households implies that a permanent increase in wealth should have a positive effect on consumer spending. Given the comparatively strong in...

Authors: Alain Galli

Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc is known to appreciate strongly during financial market turmoil, demonstrating its status as a typical safe haven currency. One possible mechanism behind this appreciation during times of globa...

Authors: Pınar Yeşin

Allocation of Expenditures in Elderly Households and the Cost of Widowhood

Widowhood and retirement change the economie environment of elderly households. While retirement changes income and expenditure patterns, widowhood fundamentally changes the structure of the household. Besides...

Authors: Daniel Burkhard

Impacts of Global Warming on Energy Use for Heating and Cooling with Full Rebound Effects in Switzerland

This paper analyzes the impacts of the modified needs for space heating and cooling due to global warming on the quantities of energy used for space conditioning and overall. It thereby estimates direct and to...

Authors: Camille Gonseth, Philippe Thalmann and Marc Vielle

Is Governance Related to Investment Performance and Asset Allocation? Empirical Evidence from Swiss Pension Funds

This study investigates the relationship between governance, investment performance and asset allocation of pension funds in Switzerland. Our sample includes survey data from 139 Swiss occupational pension pla...

Authors: Manuel Ammann and Christian Ehmann

Partisan Campaigning and Initiative Petition Signing in Direct Democracies

This paper investigates whether popular initiatives signed by a larger share of the population have higher acceptance rates at the subsequent vote. The main analysis is based on all Swiss federal initiatives v...

Authors: Katharina E. Hofer

Heterogeneity in Income Tax Capitalization: Evidence from the Swiss Housing Market

There is evidence that taxes capitalize into housing prices, but great uncertainty about the magnitude of income tax capitalization. One explanation why empirical evidence is unclear may stem from the fact tha...

Authors: Mario Morger

The Relationship between Inequality and Growth: Evidence from New Data

The relationship between inequality and growth has attracted a lot of attention in the previous literature. Estimation of this relationship may be biased by simultaneity, omitted variables and measurement erro...

Authors: Costanza Naguib