| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
---|
constant | -7.06 (6.38) | 6.96 (5.3) | -9.12 (6.21) | 18.96 (12.94) | -3.67 (7.87) | 42.61*** (12.75) | 16.87 (28.91) |
Libor 3M | | | | -2.88 (6.57) | | | 0.91 (7.53) |
Slope 10Y-3M | | | | | | -23.41*** (7.86) | -17.77 (11.4) |
dummy 85-89 | 5.53 (10.79) | | | | | | |
dummy 95-04 | 3.34 (12.9) | | | | | | |
dummy 10-16 | 62.62*** (15.66) | | | | 64.77*** (16.21) | | 61.71** (24.22) |
∆Mout,b (t-1) | 0.26*** (0.08) | 0.26*** (0.09) | 0.33*** (0.11) | 0.25*** (0.08) | 0.22** (0.09) | 0.19** (0.09) | 0.18** (0.08) |
∆Mout,b (t-2) | -0.21*** (0.08) | -0.06 (0.09) | -0.16* (0.1) | -0.2** (0.09) | -0.26** (0.11) | -0.23* (0.12) | -0.28*** (0.08) |
∆MD/GDP | | -22.82 (19.33) | | | | | |
∆MD/GDP (t-1) | 98.5*** (15.13) | | 29.75 (35.74) | 90.66*** (18.79) | 111.99*** (15.45) | 86.98*** (15.53) | 110.07*** (17.44) |
Adjusted R2 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.33 |
Box-Ljung (15) | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
Observations | 185 | 185 | 85 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
- This table reports regressions with ΔMout,b as dependent variable. The dataset contains quarterly observations. Columns 1 and 5 display the baseline regression for the period from 1970 to 2016 and the sub-period from 1992 to 2016. The other columns display specific robustness checks. The dataset contains quarterlyobservations. For columns 1 and 2, the observation period ranges from 1970 to 2016, for column 3 from 1970 to 1991 and for columns 4 to 7 from 1992 to 2016.***, **, and * denote statistical significance (two-tailed) at the 1%, 5%, and 10% significance level respectively. Standard errors are reported in parentheses. Forcolumns 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6, heteroscedasticity-consistent (Huber-White) standard errors are used. For columns 4 and 7 Newey-West standard errors are used due to serial correlation. To test for serial correlation of the error term we performed the Box-Ljung test with a lag of 15 and we report its p value