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Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Table 2 Dynamic probit model results, including additional variables, horizons 1–24 months, 1974M1–2017M4

From: The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017

 

Horizons at which variables are significant at the 5% level (months)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Spread

1–17

1–18

1–18

1–24

1–18

1–18

Recession (third lag)

< 8, > 14

< 9, > 15

< 4, > 10

< 7, > 11

< 6, 16–23

< 8, > 15

BCI

10–11

     

KOF

 

2–15

  

5–15

2–16

M1

  

1–12, 22–24

 

1–11, 22–24

 

M2

   

1–7

 

1–9

  1. The results for the constants are suppressed in the interests of brevity. KOF indicator is normalized to have mean zero and standard deviation one
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