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Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics
Fig. 4 | Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics

Fig. 4

From: Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: a retrospect on the information content of short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

Fig. 4

Log short-time workers. a Mean in-sample one-step ahead forecast error. Expanding sample period: April 2000–March 2020 for forecasting start date \(F=20Q1\text {-}M4\) and April 2000 to quarter’s second month for starting forecast quarter \(F=20Q2,\dots ,22Q1\). The dots represent cumulated shocks up to forecasting start date (the sum across equally colored bars). b Posterior distribution of \(\theta\). Sample period: First quarter 2000 \(+ \max (p,m)\) to fourth quarter 2019

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