From: Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland
ΔRt = IRS fixed leg | 2 years | 5 years | 7 years | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference period | ||||||
| 0.429*** | 0.332*** | 0.278*** | 0.211* | 0.132 | 0.140 |
(0.114) | (0.082) | (0.077) | (0.083) | (0.097) | (0.097) | |
| 0.407*** | 0.305*** | 0.264*** | 0.226*** | 0.235*** | 0.237*** |
(0.08) | (0.073) | (0.071) | (0.066) | (0.066) | (0.066) | |
Constant | 0.000 | − 0.001 | − 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
No. of obs. | 1248 | 1248 | 1248 | 1248 | 1247 | 1247 |
R2 | 0.221 | 0.140 | 0.107 | 0.065 | 0.046 | 0.060 |
H0: p-value | 0.889 | 0.824 | 0.905 | 0.898 | 0.436 | 0.464 |
ZLB period | ||||||
| 0.910*** | 0.914*** | 0.818*** | 0.675** | 0.627* | 0.613* |
(0.226) | (0.226) | (0.234) | (0.237) | (0.256) | (0.25) | |
| 0.488* | 0.419* | 0.364 | 0.374 | 0.529 | 0.388 |
(0.228) | (0.201) | (0.201) | (0.226) | (0.272) | (0.242) | |
Constant | − 0.002 | − 0.003 | − 0.003 | − 0.002 | − 0.002 | − 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 | 799 |
R2 | 0.115 | 0.066 | 0.046 | 0.030 | 0.027 | 0.021 |
H0: p-value | 0.239 | 0.133 | 0.177 | 0.406 | 0.816 | 0.560 |
Floor period | ||||||
| 0.202 | 0.158 | 0.131 | 0.107 | 0.101 | 0.129 |
(0.107) | (0.131) | (0.139) | (0.14) | (0.141) | (0.152) | |
| 0.116 | 0.271*** | 0.366*** | 0.440*** | 0.421*** | 0.448*** |
(0.066) | (0.078) | (0.08) | (0.089) | (0.097) | (0.107) | |
Constant | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | |
No. of obs. | 660 | 661 | 661 | 661 | 661 | 661 |
R2 | 0.028 | 0.049 | 0.054 | 0.063 | 0.052 | 0.056 |
H0: p-value | 0.530 | 0.489 | 0.171 | 0.062 | 0.082 | 0.112 |
NIR period | ||||||
| 0.390* | 0.436* | 0.443* | 0.439* | 0.321 | 0.362 |
(0.168) | (0.177) | (0.194) | (0.211) | (0.217) | (0.223) | |
| 0.625** | 0.568** | 0.458** | 0.379* | 0.358* | 0.338* |
(0.205) | (0.173) | (0.160) | (0.154) | (0.149) | (0.157) | |
Constant | 0.003* | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 444 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 | 445 |
R2 | 0.353 | 0.249 | 0.202 | 0.121 | 0.097 | 0.093 |
H0: p-value | 0.415 | 0.625 | 0.955 | 0.832 | 0.897 | 0.936 |