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Table 6 Robustness: accounting for outliers

From: Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland

ΔRt = gov. bond yields

2 years

5 years

7 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

Reference period

      

0.744***

0.495***

0.487***

0.483***

0.397***

0.237*

 

(0.164)

(0.109)

(0.107)

(0.110)

(0.107)

(0.105)

0.696***

0.562***

0.538***

0.520***

0.422***

0.364***

 

(0.143)

(0.107)

(0.102)

(0.096)

(0.095)

(0.091)

 Constant

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.000

0.001

0.001

 

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.001)

(0.002)

 No. of obs.

1163

1165

1165

1165

1161

1053

R2

0.064

0.086

0.081

0.077

0.057

0.026

H0: p-value

0.846

0.710

0.773

0.834

0.881

0.431

ZLB period

      

0.581***

0.741***

0.752***

0.680***

0.598*

0.441+

 

(0.155)

(0.218)

(0.200)

(0.203)

(0.233)

(0.255)

0.673**

0.648*

0.502+

0.563*

0.448+

0.314

 

(0.244)

(0.273)

(0.274)

(0.286)

(0.245)

(0.281)

 Constant

− 0.000

− 0.002

− 0.003

− 0.002

− 0.002

− 0.002

 

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

 No. of obs.

788

788

788

787

779

746

R2

0.082

0.041

0.045

0.041

0.035

0.013

H0: p-value

0.776

0.812

0.512

0.767

0.690

0.767

Floor period

      

− 0.102

− 0.021

− 0.172

− 0.081

− 0.134

− 0.112

 

(0.144)

(0.170)

(0.161)

(0.192)

(0.166)

(0.160)

0.147

0.226

0.397**

0.344*

0.293+

0.324+

 

(0.155)

(0.191)

(0.141)

(0.158)

(0.163)

(0.170)

 Constant

0.002

0.001

0.003*

0.002

0.003

0.003

 

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

 No. of obs.

630

632

561

624

623

629

R2

0.008

0.010

0.031

0.011

0.008

0.008

H0: p-value

0.319

0.395

0.019

0.138

0.106

0.101

NIR period

      

0.575

0.733*

0.608*

0.394*

0.410+

0.450*

 

(0.354)

(0.295)

(0.267)

(0.192)

(0.233)

(0.222)

0.305

0.265+

0.290+

0.331+

0.348+

0.354*

 

(0.165)

(0.145)

(0.151)

(0.176)

(0.189)

(0.179)

 Constant

0.002

− 0.000

0.001

0.001

0.001

0.001

 

(0.002)

(0.001)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

(0.002)

 No. of obs.

428

428

428

428

427

428

R2

0.039

0.071

0.050

0.028

0.028

0.036

H0: p-value

0.521

0.190

0.341

0.825

0.851

0.757

  1. Robust standard errors in parentheses
  2. Statistical significance indicated with *** if p<0.001, ** if p<0.01, * if p<0.05, and + if p<0.1
  3. rt denotes the Swiss franc 3-month OIS
  4. H0:β1=β2 in regression (1)
  5. Observations where |Δrt|> 0.05 are excluded