From: Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland
ΔRt = gov. bond yields | 2 years | 5 years | 7 years | 10 years | 15 years | 20 years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference period | ||||||
| 0.744*** | 0.495*** | 0.487*** | 0.483*** | 0.397*** | 0.237* |
(0.164) | (0.109) | (0.107) | (0.110) | (0.107) | (0.105) | |
| 0.696*** | 0.562*** | 0.538*** | 0.520*** | 0.422*** | 0.364*** |
(0.143) | (0.107) | (0.102) | (0.096) | (0.095) | (0.091) | |
Constant | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 1163 | 1165 | 1165 | 1165 | 1161 | 1053 |
R2 | 0.064 | 0.086 | 0.081 | 0.077 | 0.057 | 0.026 |
H0: p-value | 0.846 | 0.710 | 0.773 | 0.834 | 0.881 | 0.431 |
ZLB period | ||||||
| 0.581*** | 0.741*** | 0.752*** | 0.680*** | 0.598* | 0.441+ |
(0.155) | (0.218) | (0.200) | (0.203) | (0.233) | (0.255) | |
| 0.673** | 0.648* | 0.502+ | 0.563* | 0.448+ | 0.314 |
(0.244) | (0.273) | (0.274) | (0.286) | (0.245) | (0.281) | |
Constant | − 0.000 | − 0.002 | − 0.003 | − 0.002 | − 0.002 | − 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 788 | 788 | 788 | 787 | 779 | 746 |
R2 | 0.082 | 0.041 | 0.045 | 0.041 | 0.035 | 0.013 |
H0: p-value | 0.776 | 0.812 | 0.512 | 0.767 | 0.690 | 0.767 |
Floor period | ||||||
| − 0.102 | − 0.021 | − 0.172 | − 0.081 | − 0.134 | − 0.112 |
(0.144) | (0.170) | (0.161) | (0.192) | (0.166) | (0.160) | |
| 0.147 | 0.226 | 0.397** | 0.344* | 0.293+ | 0.324+ |
(0.155) | (0.191) | (0.141) | (0.158) | (0.163) | (0.170) | |
Constant | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003* | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 |
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 630 | 632 | 561 | 624 | 623 | 629 |
R2 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.031 | 0.011 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
H0: p-value | 0.319 | 0.395 | 0.019 | 0.138 | 0.106 | 0.101 |
NIR period | ||||||
| 0.575 | 0.733* | 0.608* | 0.394* | 0.410+ | 0.450* |
(0.354) | (0.295) | (0.267) | (0.192) | (0.233) | (0.222) | |
| 0.305 | 0.265+ | 0.290+ | 0.331+ | 0.348+ | 0.354* |
(0.165) | (0.145) | (0.151) | (0.176) | (0.189) | (0.179) | |
Constant | 0.002 | − 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.002) | (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |
No. of obs. | 428 | 428 | 428 | 428 | 427 | 428 |
R2 | 0.039 | 0.071 | 0.050 | 0.028 | 0.028 | 0.036 |
H0: p-value | 0.521 | 0.190 | 0.341 | 0.825 | 0.851 | 0.757 |